To Divide Iraq

The recent passing of the Biden-Brownback proposal in the Congress for the partitioning of Iraq into three states will not necessarily be a good thing. Yes, I have mixed emotions about the thing.

True that deaths are down. Was it the surge? Probably not, IMO. Why? Well the violence in Baghdad, especially has driven people away from their neighborhoods and into areas of similar beliefs; Sunni to Sunni, Shi'a to Shi'a, etc. Plus this type of forces segregation is going on throughout the country. So the drop in deaths is more that the ethnic division is more complete that not. So Iraq is already nearing the point where their are three distinct areas. So to say that the surge was the defining action would be just a spin on something that was already happening.

Recently, Iraqi lawmakers have said that they were considering taking a national reconciliation off the books, for the time being. Another indication that there is already a fledgling 3 states emerging.

If this division was being carried out already why would Biden, et al feel it necessary to make a proposal fir something already in process?

One can think of at least three reasons.

The first is Biden's desperate attempt at appearing a serious thinker on geostrategy without having to admit that the US has no choice but to remain on the side of the Iraqi people until they defeat their common enemies.

The second reason is that most of the leading Democrats in the senate, including several presidential candidates, believe that by passing resolutions such as this they could calm down their militant anti-war base. Last year, the Democrats recaptured both houses of the Congress partly thanks to the efforts of well-motivate grassroots organizations who had opposed the liberation of Iraq from the start. A year later, however, the Democrats have failed to have any significant effect on President George W Bush's strategy in Iraq. To calm the anti-war movement, the Democrats have to say and do something.

The third and perhaps the most important reason, as always in the Middle East, is oil.

Does it always come down to oil? Most assuredly! You would also not be surprised to learn that at least a dozen of the senators who backed Biden's carve-up plan have been recipients of campaign contributions from another oil company interested in Iraqi Kurdistan. This one is Hunt Oil, a Texas maverick in the oil business, which cut a deal with the autonomous Kurdish authorities just weeks before Biden made his move.

As you see, there is always ulterior motives for these actions in Iraq. Just like there were for the original invasion. And it always seems to come down to a common denominator--OIL!

CHUQ